spanish-lemon-crop-forecast-2026-2027

These figures are not an official crop forecast. They represent a preliminary scenario based on the first regional estimates, conditions in Spain’s main production areas and the final result of the previous season.

Murcia expects a significant reduction in Fino lemons

ASAJA Murcia estimates that regional Fino lemon production could fall by approximately 30%.

Murcia represents a major share of Spanish lemon production. A reduction of this magnitude would therefore have a significant impact on national availability.

Several factors could still influence the final harvest:

Fruit development and final size

Temperatures during the coming weeks

Water availability

Pest and disease pressure

The percentage of fruit meeting fresh-market standards

Physiological fruit drop

The reduction will not necessarily be uniform. Crop conditions can vary considerably depending on location, orchard age, irrigation system and the condition of individual plantations.

Alicante expects a moderate recovery

The outlook is different in the province of Alicante.

ASAJA Alicante forecasts an increase of approximately 5% for Fino lemons and close to 10% for Verna. Rainfall during the hydrological year and the recovery of orchards previously affected by pests have supported tree development.

For the Valencian Community as a whole, La Unió Llauradora estimates lemon production at 240,408 tonnes, approximately 15% higher than in the previous season. This growth is expected to be driven mainly by the Verna variety.

The Valencian recovery could partially compensate for the reduction in Murcia, but it is unlikely to prevent an overall decline in Spanish production.

Fino lemon availability will be the main concern

The expected reduction in Fino lemons is likely to be the most important feature of the new season.

Based on approximately 780,000 tonnes in 2025/2026, we estimate that national Fino production could fall to between 600,000 and 680,000 tonnes.

This could result in:

Lower availability during the winter

A potentially shorter Fino season

Firm prices during the second half of the campaign

Less fruit available for processing

Stronger competition between the fresh market and processors

The most sensitive period could be between January and March 2027, when the volume remaining on trees begins to decline and the Verna campaign has not yet fully started.

A more positive outlook for Verna lemons

Verna production could recover from the particularly short 2025/2026 campaign.

Initial estimates from Alicante and the Valencian Community indicate higher production. Nevertheless, it is still too early to establish a reliable final volume because the Verna crop will depend on successive flowering, fruit setting and weather conditions during autumn and winter.

Our preliminary scenario places national Verna and minor-variety production between 280,000 and 320,000 tonnes.

Even if this recovery materialises, total Spanish supply is still likely to remain below the previous season because of the expected reduction in Fino production.

Turkey may continue to have a limited market presence

Developments in Turkey will be critical to the European lemon market.

During the 2025/2026 season, Turkish production was severely affected by frost and cold weather. Lower Turkish exports allowed Spanish lemons to capture a very high share of the European market and maintain historically firm prices.

Turkey may recover part of its production in 2026/2027, but uncertainty remains regarding the condition of orchards and the actual volume of exportable fruit.

If Turkish supply remains limited during September, October and November, Spanish Fino lemons could begin the season in a favourable commercial position.

South Africa will influence the beginning of the Spanish season

The principal short-term risk comes from South Africa.

The 2026 South African season produced high export volumes and favourable fruit sizes. During July, increased arrivals into Europe led to accumulated stocks and pressure on market prices.

The transition between the Southern Hemisphere season and the start of Spanish harvesting will be crucial.

If substantial volumes of South African lemons remain in European cold stores in September, the start of the Spanish Fino campaign could face greater pressure or be delayed. If these stocks decline rapidly, Spanish lemons will recover their leading position in Europe sooner.

Consequences for juice and beverage manufacturers

A smaller crop does not necessarily mean that the fresh market will run out of lemons. The main concern for processors is how much fruit will ultimately be available for industrial use.

This situation will be particularly relevant for manufacturers all lemon juice derivates.

The impact on juice costs is greater than the direct increase in the price of fruit. With indicative extraction yields of between 350 and 450 litres per tonne, depending on the variety, maturity and extraction system, a €0.10/kg increase in the cost of lemons could add approximately €0.22–€0.29 per litre to the raw-material cost alone.

Extraction, pasteurisation, concentration, packaging, storage and transport costs must then be added.

What could happen to lemon prices?

It is still too early to establish definitive prices, but the current situation points towards a firm market.

Price development will depend mainly on:

1.The final Fino volume in Murcia

2.Fruit sizing during August and September

3.South African stocks remaining in Europe

4.The recovery of Turkish production

5.Demand from European retailers

6.The amount of fruit available for processing

It should not be assumed that the record prices of 2025/2026 will automatically be repeated. However, if the reduction in Fino production is confirmed and Turkish supply remains limited, there is a solid basis for prices to remain at relatively high levels.

Recommendations for industrial buyers

Manufacturers requiring lemon juice during the 2026/2027 campaign should plan their supply needs earlier than usual.

For B2B buyers, price is not the only risk. At certain points during the campaign, physical availability and the ability to fulfil delivery programmes may become even more important.

Spanish lemon market outlook for 2026/2027

Spain’s 2026/2027 lemon campaign is shaping up to be a season of tighter supply.

The expected reduction in Murcia’s Fino crop could push national production below one million tonnes. A possible recovery in Verna and Alicante production should partially offset this decline, but is unlikely to compensate for it completely.

The forecast should be updated once AILIMPO and the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture publish their official national estimates. Until then, cautious purchasing and early supply planning will be essential.

Industrial lemon solutions from BAOR Products

BAOR Products supplies lemon solutions for food and beverage manufacturers, including:

1.NFC lemon juice

2.Lemon juice concentrate

3.

4.Concentrated lemonade bases

5.Organic lemon ingredients

5.Customised formulations

7.Solutions for soft drinks and functional beverages

8.Industrial and Bag-in-Box formats

Our technical team can assess the required Brix, acidity, origin, packaging format and final application to develop the most suitable solution for each industrial project.

Are you planning your lemon supply for the 2026/2027 season? Contact BAOR Products to discuss availability, technical specifications and B2B supply programmes.