25 Oct Future prices of natural orange juice concentrates
The calculation of orange juice futures prices, like other agricultural products, is based on a number of factors including supply and demand, weather conditions, consumption trends and production costs.
We are experiencing one of the most complicated situations with citrus fruits; in the last 50 years we have not known a situation like the current one.
Orange juice price futures are calculated based on:
Supply and demand: The supply and demand for juice is key to calculating future prices. Currently, demand is the same as other years, but however, supply is much more limited. This is making orange futures very high, even higher than current prices.
Climatic conditions: Climatic conditions have a significant impact on the production of oranges. Currently, we have had widespread rains in Brazil for a few weeks, which is causing the fruit harvest window to be lost. And consequently the availability of fruit to manufacture orange concentrate is decreasing.
Consumption trends: World consumption of orange juice has been regular in recent years, it is true that more orange trees have been planted, but consumption has also increased in the same proportion and we must take into account that we have also had an increase in prices in auxiliary raw materials such as drums, aseptic bags or even pallets, which has also had an impact on the price of orange juice.
Production costs: Production costs, such as labor, fertility
izers, pesticides and transportation also influence the price of orange futures. For some years now, there has been talk of
problems in some origins for fruit harvesting, which has meant that the price of labor has to be increased. of i
Likewise, since the Ukrainian war began and due to global inflation, energy prices and some other raw materials for production such as gas drums
As we said, we are facing a very complicated campaign, which will most likely cause orange juice consumption to decline.
Current futures point to orange juice concentrate prices close to 4.5 euros/kg of origin, which will make us have orange juice concentrates close to 5 euros in Europe.
This significant increase is causing changes in production to other qualities or even other fruits.
Complicated year 2024 for orange concentrated juices
At the beginning of December we already have a price for orange fruit of 0.40 per kg leaving the warehouse or field, which suggests prices for orange juice concentrate above 6.5 eur per kg exw Spain.
The rest of mediterranean countries, have similar price levels, and only a decline in global demand for orange concentrates will be able to contain the rise in prices.
Coming year, 2024, presents us with a somewhat cloudy horizon and with a lot of uncertainty in orange juice concentrates.
Most likely, consumption of natural orange juice concentrate will be affected and other qualities or even other fruit concentrates will take on even more importance. At Baor Products we are manufacturers of fruit concentrates that we distribute worldwide to the main food industrial manufacturers.